Will Win: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike - I think this critical and fan favorite will get the big prize for plays. It was a huge success off and on Broadway, which speaks well to its chances.
Should Win: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike - It should win for the reasons above
Could Win: Lucky Guy - Tom Hanks and Nora Ephron make a killer combo. While I think they have better shots individually, they could take the big prize too.
Will Win: Matilda - While I had my own opinions about it, it was an amazing production altogether, which is what this award is about. Plus the fact that it is the most popular new show on Broadway right now, it should follow up its success from London.
Should Win: Matilda - It was one of (if not) the best productions I've ever seen and does truly deserve the honor.
Could Win: Kinky Boots - This show has a little bit wider a net than Matilda and considering a lot of out of town professionals are voters, there could be a big push for a Kinky Boots win.
Best Revival of a Play
Will Win: Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? - This was the best play I have ever seen. I could have sat through a whole night of this production and I think voters will remember it.
Should Win: Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? - See above
Could Win: The Trip to Bountiful/Golden Boy - These shows got great reviews, so if people "forget" about Woolf, either show could walk away big.
Best Revival of a Musical
Will Win: Pippin - An all-around amazing production of one of the most beloved musicals directed by Tony-baby Diane Paulus, with a circus troupe and amazing cast. This is a no-brainer.
Should Win: Pippin - See above.
Could Win: Let's be honest. Pippin is going to win.
Best Book of a Musical
Will Win: Dennis Kelly, Matilda - The book was witty and endearing, without losing its grit. It is going to be hard to beat.
Should Win: Dennis Kelly, Matilda - See above.
Could Win: Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots - He is loved by the theatre community and people are loving Kinky Boots right now. Could be a lethal combo.
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Will Win: Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots - I think this will be where Kinky Boots overthrows Matilda. It's a great pop score written by one of pop's biggest legends.
Should Win: Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots - I might get backlash for saying this, but I think Cyndi wrote the best score of the year. Sorry, Tim. It might not be as complex, but I think it's a great score.
Could Win: Tim Minchin, Matilda - Another great score that is complex and well written. I just don't think it was perfect and I think this was one of the weaker parts of Matilda. Sorry, not sorry.
I'm just adding - I would LOVE to see Pasek & Paul take the award to support new, contemporary musical theatre (my favorite), but don't think it will happen.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Win: Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy - Big Hollywood star giving a great performance in a well-received show that already recouped. It's his to lose.
Should Win: Tracy Letts, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? - The fact that as George he gave the strongest performance of the show in a group of powerhouse actors should win him the award alone. Unfortunately, I think the show closed too long ago.
Could Win: Nathan Lane, The Nance - Nathan Lane has a lot of fans out there and is giving one hell of a performance.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play (Arguably the toughest category)
Will Win: Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful - Easily the critic favorite who seems to be gaining the most traction ahead of the awards.
Should Win: Amy Morton, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? - If you can't tell, I loved this show. Amy's performance was amazing, but will be forgotten in such a crowded category considering the show closed so long ago.
Could Win: Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike - The fact that she completely overshadowed Sigouney Weaver should show how great a performance she gave. She could be the black horse winner, and a well-deserved one at that.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Will Win: Bertie Carvel, Matilda The Musical - If you read my review of MATILDA, you'd know that this is the performance to beat. He was flawless and perfect in every way.
Should Win: Bertie Carvel, Matilda The Musical - See above.
Could Win: Billy Porter, Kinky Boots - If Bertie wasn't in this category, it'd definitely be Billy's to lose. That's why I'm not counting out his powerful, drag performance yet.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Will Win: Patina Miller, Pippin - She is one of the highlights of one of the most talked about shows of the season. Plus she is playing one of the greatest musical theatre roles created. I think it's definitely hers to lose.
Should Win: Patina Miller, Pippin - See above.
Could Win: Laura Osnes, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella - She is a princess. And Broadway's princess at that. She might pick up her Tony for this role, but I think she won't get the necessary support.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Will Win: Danny Burstein, Golden Boy - People really love Danny Burstein.
Should Win: I honestly don't know.
Could Win: Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy - He got some serious raves for his performance. And working with Tom Hanks doesn't hurt.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Will Win: Judith Light, The Assembled Parties - She followed up an amazing Tony Award-winning performance from last season with another amazing performance. She will win again.
Should Win: Judith Light, The Assembled Parties - See above.
Could Win: I honestly doubt Judith will lose.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: Terrence Mann, Pippin - Pippin is going to get a lot of love in the acting categories, as it was overall probably the strongest musical of the year.
Should Win: Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood - He will have been forgotten by now, but I think his performance was definitely a standout in this super fun revival.
Could Win: Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody - I was one of like 10 people saw this show, but if enough people did, his performance was heartwarming and powerful enough to sway some voters.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: Andrea Martin, Pippin - She gets a mid-show standing ovation at most performances. I'd say that is a good indication that she will win.
Should Win: Andrea Martin, Pippin - See above.
Could Win: Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots or Keala Settle, Hands on a Hardbody - Both gave some of the strongest performances in their shows and could get enough love/split the vote enough to walk away with the award.
Best Direction of a Musical
Will Win: Matthew Warchus, Matilda The Musical - This show had amazing vision all the way through and I think that is a direct reflection of phenomenal direction.
Should Win: Diane Paulus, Pippin - In typical Paulus fashion, she did something amazing that I don't think anyone else would attempt. She deserves this award.
Could Win: Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots - He is loved and did a great job with one of the season's best shows. I don't think he should be counted out.
Could Win: Chet Walker, Pippin - His Fosse-inspired choreo could have a lot of voters on his side.
Will Win: Peter Darling, Matilda The Musical - While I wasn't wow-ed by the choreo, a lot of people were and I think it's uniqueness will win it the award.
Should Win: Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots - This is one award I think Kinky Boots definitely has on Matilda, but I don't know if the voters will agree.
I know this was long winded, but now all my opinions are on the table. I can't wait to see what happens Sunday!